Re: IRV - was Ms. Tobi's overheated rhetoric

From: Arthur Keller <voting_at_kellers_dot_org>
Date: Mon Nov 12 2007 - 10:37:10 CST

Thanks for doing the calculation for 4 candidates. The most recent
mayoral race in San Francisco had 12 candidates. You omitted this
quote that immediately preceded the quote you did cite:

The 12
candidates with IRV of a sequence of up to 3 candidates has 1,265
distinct valid combinations (including [partial and full] abstain[s]).

The 2006 California Governor's race had 6 candidates. The number of
potential sequences of 3 choices of the 6 candidates is:

6 (first choice) * 5 (second choice) * 4 (third choice) = 120
6 (first choice) * 5 (second choice) * 1 (abstain third choice) = 30
6 (first choice) * 1 (abstain second and third choice) = 6
1 (abstain on entire contest) = 1

Total = 157

Best regards,

At 9:07 AM -0500 11/12/07, Kaj Telenar wrote:
>Arthur Keller wrote:
>>> Could you imagine an IRV vote for Governor of California, where 8.5
>>> million votes are cast? Would you tabulate that IRV race by
>>> hand-count? How?
>There are only a limited number of possible sequences of votes. If the
>buckets for that race are not just who ever is first, but the whole
>series, then you would end up with a bunch of series with the number of
>votes cast for each series. Those series are much easier to manipulate
>than stacks of ballots.
>First the ballots are put into the appropriate buckets and the number of
>ballots in each bucket is totaled. Each series could get its own 3x5
>card. Then each of the series is allocated to the candidates based on
>first choice. When the candidate with the lowest totals is eliminated,
>then the cards are moved to the appropriate candidates pile and the
>totals are adjusted.
>This system only gets difficult if you have multiple winners, such as
>for a city council race. I assume that there is a limit to the number of
>choices someone can cast. For example, one can vote for 1st, 2nd, 3rd,
>and 4th choice; but not 5th or beyond.

Arthur M. Keller, Ph.D., 3881 Corina Way, Palo Alto, CA  94303-4507
tel +1(650)424-0202, fax +1(650)424-0424
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Received on Fri Nov 30 23:17:18 2007

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