Re: Ms. Tobi's overheated rhetoric

From: Danny Swarzman <danny_at_stowlake_dot_com>
Date: Mon Nov 12 2007 - 03:04:17 CST

Arthur makes some good points. I'll try another slant on estimating.
See if it passes scrutiny better.

First, I must admit that the recent election wasn't typical. There
was a majority for one candidate in the first round of each of three
IRV contests. Let's try for more typical assumptions.

That is 48 person/hours get 944*9 or 8496 votes counted.

The New Hampshire figures come to one person/hour = 177 votes counted
or one vote costs .0056 person/hours

San Francisco ballot with 11 measures. Let's say three IRV contests
are more typical with say six rounds of counting. That would make the
election equivalent to 11+3*6 = 29 votes counted per ballot.

29*200000 votes to count. 32768 person hours. If there were 100
people working at any give shift, it would take 327 hours or 13.6
days and cost $819200.

Is that a better estimate?

-Danny

On Nov 11, 2007, at 11:23 PM, Arthur Keller wrote:

> At 9:05 PM -0800 11/11/07, Danny Swarzman wrote:
>> Does that come to about 50 ballots per person per hour?
>>
>> Then 100 people could count 5000 ballots per hour.
>>
>> 100 people could count 100000 ballots per day.
>
> Huh? That's if they work for 20 hours a day. If they work 10
> hours/day then you have twice as many people or twice as many days.
>
>> San Francisco may be 200000 ballots. That would be two days for
>> 100 people.
>>
>> 4000 person hours at $25 would be $100,000.
>
> That's only if there is ONE IRV round. If there are two IRV rounds,
> count on doubling the figure. If there are three IRV rounds, then
> the figure is tripled.
>
>> But San Francisco is likely to have two or three times as many
>> contests making it less than one week for $200000-$300000 for the
>> election. That seems to be in the ball park of the cost of buying
>> the closed source venders or a little less.
>>
>> Sound right?
>>
>> -Danny
>
> The November 2007 election had 11 yes/no measures, and 3 races. The
> 3 races had one candidate, two candidates, and 12 candidates. The 12
> candidates with IRV of a sequence of up to 3 candidates has 1,265
> distinct valid combinations (including abstain).
>
> Could you imagine an IRV vote for Governor of California, where 8.5
> million votes are cast? Would you tabulate that IRV race by
> hand-count? How?
>
> Best regards,
> Arthur
>
>>
>> But San Francisco in February wlll
>> On Nov 11, 2007, at 8:17 PM, Brent Turner wrote:
>>
>>>> With seven races and two initiatives, the six teams of two people
>>>>
>>>> each were able to hand-count twice 944 ballots in four hours.
>
> --
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> ---------
> Arthur M. Keller, Ph.D., 3881 Corina Way, Palo Alto, CA 94303-4507
> tel +1(650)424-0202, fax +1(650)424-0424
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Received on Fri Nov 30 23:17:16 2007

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