Re: statistical study after next Tues election

From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_at_directell_dot_com>
Date: Wed Nov 03 2004 - 13:09:16 CST

I found one very surprising pattern so far, not what I expected at all.

How easy would it be to rig precinct-based optical scan voting systems?

It was easy to get the numbers for a percent change comparison of election
results with voter party registration, so I compared voter party
registration rates in each county with election results by party in each
county in Florida, and look what I found!!

Here are my results:

Differences between expected votes based on voter registration for dems
and repubs in each Florida county, divided by "expected" results based on
voter registration proportion in each county.

Can any of you think why there would be such a striking difference in
patterns (The HUGE percent change that Republicans picked up in op-scan
counties was amazingly different than in DRE counties)?

I calced what election results that might be expected based on voter
registration proportion of Dems and Repubs times votes cast in each
county.

Even given possible demographic differences, I would never have expected
such a huge difference in percent change based on voting machine type.

COUNTIES USING DRE ES&S TOUCHSCREEN:
each county is one line:
REP DEM
29% 27%
24% 35%
22% 40%
51% 11%
17% 30%
27% 14%
24% 34%
9% 51%
32% 25%
48% -29%
20% 35%
35% 19%
27% 31%
12% 45%
43% -11%

COUNTIES USING PRECINCT-BASED OP-SCAN SYSTEMS:

REP DEM
(each county is one line)
259% -15%
312% 12%
126% 82%
253% 13%
123% 58%
741% -23%
141% 46%
77% 197%
219% 19%
293% -2%
565% -11%
171% 25%
128% 60%
145% 34%
529% -24%
793% -64%
229% 20%
303% -11%
276% -2%
571% -30%
274% 9%
225% 4%
142% 36%
125% 53%
369% 6%
355% -14%
382% -39%
656% -11%
276% -35%
262% 5%
1173% -28%
571% -36%
126% 71%
132% 47%
159% 36%
75% 214%
236% -2%
185% 24%
205% 29%
157% 38%
256% 2%
79% 175%
124% 80%
88% 105%
174% 40%
273% 11%
429% -16%
447% -4%
178% 18%
313% -14%
100% 99%
293% 6%

Does anyone know how I can obtain a breakdown of votes in Florida by
county by:
1. cast precinct
2. cast paper mailin
3. cast early - machine and paper

Regards,

Kathy

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Received on Tue Nov 30 23:17:05 2004

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