Re: exit polls vs. election results

From: Ed Kennedy <ekennedyx_at_yahoo_dot_com>
Date: Sun May 15 2005 - 22:45:27 CDT

Hello:

It sounds like they want to have it both ways. Other than that, I can't
make a lot of sense out of it. I was never very good at statistics.

-- 
Thanks, Edmund R. Kennedy
Always work for the common good.
10777 Bendigo Cove
San Diego, CA 92126-2510
USA
I blog now and then at: <http://ekennedyx.blogspot.com/>
Also, I've got a web site at <http://geocities.com/ekennedyx/>
----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Fred McLain" <mclain@zipcon.net>
To: <uscv_programs@uscountvotes.org>
Cc: "Open Voting Consortium discussion list" <ovc-discuss@listman.sonic.net>
Sent: Sunday, May 15, 2005 2:59 PM
Subject: [OVC-discuss] exit polls vs. election results
> Opinions?  Note that this column has supported the USCV position in the
> past.
>
> -Fred-
>
> http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=6046
>
>
> Election Fraud 2004: Debate rages on over exit polls vs. election
> results
> Sunday 15th May 2005
>
> A just released analysis confirms pollster Warren Mitofsky’s assertion
> that the exit polls that put John Kerry ahead of George Bush in Ohio on
> Election Day 2004 do not necessarily indicate that there was fraud in
> the Ohio election.
>
> The research team, led by Dr. Fritz Scheuren, used more detailed
> information from the exit polls than previous studies. The team was able
> to use this precinct-level information while preserving ballot secrecy
> at a local level.
>
> "The more detailed information allowed us to see that voting patterns
> were consistent with past results and consistent with exit poll results
> across precincts. It looks more like Bush voters were refusing to
> participate and less like systematic fraud," Dr. Scheuren said.
>
> Ohio Exit Polls ’Not a Smoking Gun’ for Fraud
>
>
>
> The persistence of credible hypotheses of election fraud, six months
> after the election, underscores the fragility of the U.S. electoral
> system. US Count Votes continues its systematic statistical study of the
> discrepancy between the Edison-Mitofsky exit polls and November’s
> reported presidential election results.
>
> The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) today has released a new
> report, demonstrating that data from the Edison/Mitofsky analysis is
> consistent with the hypothesis of a corrupted vote count, and
> inconsistent with the competing idea that Bush voters were under-sampled
> in the poll. Using numerical modeling techniques to simulate the effect
> of polling bias, NEDA scientists are able to reproduce signature
> patterns in the Edison/Mitofsky data by incorporating a general shift in
> the official vote tally in the model.
>
> Most telling is the fact that the highest participation rates and the
> peak disparity between poll and official returns both occurred in
> precincts where Bush made his strongest showing. This feature of the
> data is inconsistent with the Edison/Mitofsky assumption that polling
> bias was responsible for the gap.
>
> complete report- Hypotheses of Fraud Remain Credible
>
>
>
>
>
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Received on Tue May 31 23:17:38 2005

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