exit polls vs. election results

From: Fred McLain <mclain_at_zipcon_dot_net>
Date: Sun May 15 2005 - 16:59:33 CDT

Opinions? Note that this column has supported the USCV position in the
past.

        -Fred-

http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=6046

Election Fraud 2004: Debate rages on over exit polls vs. election
results
Sunday 15th May 2005
 
A just released analysis confirms pollster Warren Mitofsky’s assertion
that the exit polls that put John Kerry ahead of George Bush in Ohio on
Election Day 2004 do not necessarily indicate that there was fraud in
the Ohio election.

The research team, led by Dr. Fritz Scheuren, used more detailed
information from the exit polls than previous studies. The team was able
to use this precinct-level information while preserving ballot secrecy
at a local level.

"The more detailed information allowed us to see that voting patterns
were consistent with past results and consistent with exit poll results
across precincts. It looks more like Bush voters were refusing to
participate and less like systematic fraud," Dr. Scheuren said.

Ohio Exit Polls ’Not a Smoking Gun’ for Fraud

The persistence of credible hypotheses of election fraud, six months
after the election, underscores the fragility of the U.S. electoral
system. US Count Votes continues its systematic statistical study of the
discrepancy between the Edison-Mitofsky exit polls and November’s
reported presidential election results.

The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) today has released a new
report, demonstrating that data from the Edison/Mitofsky analysis is
consistent with the hypothesis of a corrupted vote count, and
inconsistent with the competing idea that Bush voters were under-sampled
in the poll. Using numerical modeling techniques to simulate the effect
of polling bias, NEDA scientists are able to reproduce signature
patterns in the Edison/Mitofsky data by incorporating a general shift in
the official vote tally in the model.

Most telling is the fact that the highest participation rates and the
peak disparity between poll and official returns both occurred in
precincts where Bush made his strongest showing. This feature of the
data is inconsistent with the Edison/Mitofsky assumption that polling
bias was responsible for the gap.

complete report- Hypotheses of Fraud Remain Credible

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Received on Tue May 31 23:17:37 2005

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