2004 Presidential Election: Hypotheses of Fraud Remain Credible; New Scientific Study Released

From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_at_uscountvotes_dot_org>
Date: Sat May 14 2005 - 04:19:06 CDT

For Immediate Release - Press Conference Today

2004 Presidential Election: Hypotheses of Fraud Remain Credible; New
Scientific Study Released

Contact: Kathy Dopp, US Count Votes, President

(435) 608-1382 kathy@uscountvotes.org electionarchive.org

The persistence of credible hypotheses of election fraud, six months
after the election, underscores the fragility of the U.S. electoral
system. US Count Votes continues its systematic statistical study of the
discrepancy between the Edison-Mitofsky exit polls and November's
reported presidential election results.

Miami, FL. Ron Baiman, Ph.D. of US Count Votes and the Institute of
Government and Public Affairs of Chicago, will release the new results
at the meeting of the American Association of Political Opinion
Researchers today, Saturday at a 2:15 p.m. Press Conference in the Hotel
Fontainebleau Hilton Resort lobby, 4441 Collins Avenue, Miami Beach, FL
33140.

Peter Pekarsky, the lead attorney being sued by Ohio Secretary of State
Kenneth Blackwell, will be available to talk about what has happened in
Ohio, and why the election needs to be investigated.

Mitofsky, of the Edison/Mitofsky group who released an analysis on
January 19th of their November 2nd exit poll that had predicted a strong
win for Kerry, will also be in attendance at the AAPOR conference.

The National Election Data Archive (NEDA) today has released a new
report, demonstrating that data from the Edison/Mitofsky analysis is
consistent with the hypothesis of a corrupted vote count, and
inconsistent with the competing idea that Bush voters were under-sampled
in the poll. Using numerical modeling techniques to simulate the effect
of polling bias, NEDA scientists are able to reproduce signature
patterns in the Edison/Mitofsky data by incorporating a general shift in
the official vote tally in the model.

Most telling is the fact that the highest participation rates and the
peak disparity between poll and official returns both occurred in
precincts where Bush made his strongest showing. This feature of the
data is inconsistent with the Edison/Mitofsky assumption that polling
bias was responsible for the gap.

For the complete report, see
http://uscountvotes.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-polls/USCV_exit_poll_simulations.pdf

This paper follows an earlier study released on March 31, 2005, by a
group of statisticians for the National Election Data Archive Project,
Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Exit Poll Discrepancies.

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Received on Tue May 31 23:17:36 2005

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