Re: A little partisan and backwards looking but I like the concluding paragraphs.

From: Edmund R. Kennedy <ekennedyx_at_yahoo_dot_com>
Date: Thu May 05 2005 - 13:38:00 CDT

Thanks!
--- Kathy Dopp <kathy@uscountvotes.org> wrote:
> Edmund R. Kennedy wrote:
>
>
>http://www.tompaine.com/20050505/articles/what_didnt_happen_in_ohio.php
> >
> >My apologies in advance if this news release hits
> some
> >folks the wrong way. However, I personally feel,
> that
> >for OVC it may be more useful to let other people
> >continue to dig away at what did and din't happen
> in
> >the 2004 elections while we move forward with the
> EVM
> >system.
> >
> Hi Ed,
>
> That article, and all the analysis of Mark
> Blumenthal on this issue,
> (the MysteryPollster) is bunk.
>
> Liddle did contribute some mathematics to further
> the discussion, but
> her analysis and conclusions lacks logic.
>
> Bruce O'Dell, VP of US Count Votes, has created a
> simulation model of
> Lizzie's algorithm. It indicates that her model
> requires a
> "participation by partisanship" profile that is
> -totally- inconsistent
> with E/M's empirical data.
>
> Lizzie's model requires -greater- exit poll
> participation in High-Kerry
> precincts than in High-Bush precincts. E/M's data
> shows quite the contrary.
>
> If you reproduce Lizzie's results, and delve down
> into the data, you
> face a fundamental contradiction with E/M's
> "participation rate by
> precinct" empirical data.
>
> Lizzie (and E/M's) "uniform response bias"
> hypothesis simply does not
> fit the facts. Period. There is simply no way to
> reconcile a "uniform
> response bias" hypothesis with E/M's "participation
> rates by
> partisanship" data.
>
> US Count Votes will eventually publish the raw data
> and my simulator
> source code, to allow anyone to confirm our
> assertions.
>
> For Bruce O'Dell's professional qualifications to
> simulate mathematical
> models, please refer to
> www.digitalagility.com/Odell_home_page.htm
> <http://www.digitalagility.com/Odell_home_page.htm>
> 35 years after writing his first Basic program,
> Bruce has reached the
> peak of his profession.
>
> He is currently engaged as the lead architect at an
> enterprise security
> project at one of the Fortune 20 ("20" is not a
> typo). He is in charge
> of the technical aspects of security at one of the
> twenty top public
> corporations in America, and for the last 15 years,
> he has focused a
> major portion of my consulting practice on formal
> modeling of complex
> systems.
>
> Best,
>
> Kathy Dopp
>
> _______________________________________________
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>

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Received on Tue May 31 23:17:20 2005

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