Re: A little partisan and backwards looking but I like the concluding paragraphs.

From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_at_uscountvotes_dot_org>
Date: Thu May 05 2005 - 13:16:49 CDT

Edmund R. Kennedy wrote:

>My apologies in advance if this news release hits some
>folks the wrong way. However, I personally feel, that
>for OVC it may be more useful to let other people
>continue to dig away at what did and din't happen in
>the 2004 elections while we move forward with the EVM
Hi Ed,

That article, and all the analysis of Mark Blumenthal on this issue,
(the MysteryPollster) is bunk.

Liddle did contribute some mathematics to further the discussion, but
her analysis and conclusions lacks logic.

Bruce O'Dell, VP of US Count Votes, has created a simulation model of
Lizzie's algorithm. It indicates that her model requires a
"participation by partisanship" profile that is -totally- inconsistent
with E/M's empirical data.

Lizzie's model requires -greater- exit poll participation in High-Kerry
precincts than in High-Bush precincts. E/M's data shows quite the contrary.

If you reproduce Lizzie's results, and delve down into the data, you
face a fundamental contradiction with E/M's "participation rate by
precinct" empirical data.

Lizzie (and E/M's) "uniform response bias" hypothesis simply does not
fit the facts. Period. There is simply no way to reconcile a "uniform
response bias" hypothesis with E/M's "participation rates by
partisanship" data.

US Count Votes will eventually publish the raw data and my simulator
source code, to allow anyone to confirm our assertions.

For Bruce O'Dell's professional qualifications to simulate mathematical
models, please refer to
35 years after writing his first Basic program, Bruce has reached the
peak of his profession.

He is currently engaged as the lead architect at an enterprise security
project at one of the Fortune 20 ("20" is not a typo). He is in charge
of the technical aspects of security at one of the twenty top public
corporations in America, and for the last 15 years, he has focused a
major portion of my consulting practice on formal modeling of complex


Kathy Dopp

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Received on Tue May 31 23:17:20 2005

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