Scientific Analysis of Exit Polls will be Released Tomorrow

From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_at_uscountvotes_dot_org>
Date: Wed Mar 30 2005 - 11:50:29 CST

Scientific Analysis Suggests Presidential Vote Counts

May Have Been Altered

Study Will Be Released Tomorrow March 31st

/Group of University Professors Urges Investigation of 2004 Election/

Officially, President Bush won November's election by 2.5%, yet exit
polls showed Kerry winning by 3%[1] <#_ftn1>. According to a report to
be released March 31^st by a group of university statisticians, the odds
of a discrepancy this large between the national exit poll and election
results happening by accident are close to 1 in a million.

In other words, by random chance alone, it could not have happened. But
it did.

Two alternatives remain. Either something was wrong with the exit
polling, or something was wrong with the vote count.

Exit polls have a long history of exceptional accuracy in past decades
in the US, in the Ukraine, in Latin America, in Germany, and elsewhere.
Yet in November 2004, the discrepancy was more than five times this (and
similar to that of the invalid Ukraine election.[2] <#_ftn2>)

In a recent survey of US members of the world's oldest and largest
computer society, The Association for Computing Machinery, 95% opposed
software driven un-auditable voting machines[3] <#_ftn3>, of the type
that now count at least 30% of U.S. votes. The vast majority of today's
electronic vote-counting machines are not built with basic safeguards
that would prevent and detect machine or human caused errors, be they
innocent or deliberate.[4] <#_ftn4>

The consortium that conducted the presidential exit polls,
Edison/Mitofsky, issued a report in January suggesting that the
discrepancy between election results and exit polls occurred because
Bush voters were more reticent than Kerry voters in response to pollsters.

The authors of this scientific study of the National Election Data
Archive Project, consider that scenario highly unlikely, based on
extensive analysis of the election data presented in their report “Final
Study of the 2004 Presidential Election Poll Discrepancies”. They
conclude, /“The required pattern of exit poll participation by Kerry and
Bush voters to satisfy the exit poll data defies empirical experience
and common sense under any assumed scenario.”/

An executive summary of the report by Josh Mitteldorf of Temple
University has been released today and is available at:
http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_summary.pdf. The
full 25 page scientific report will be released tomorrow. This group's
preliminary study on the exit poll discrepancies was not refuted by any
PhD statistician in America, and we expect our final study to be
similarly received in the academic community.

Amidst the data, many extremely unlikely anomalies exist, invariably in
President Bush’s favor. For one, a state-by-state analysis of the
discrepancy between exit polls and official election results shows
highly improbable skewing of the election results biased towards the
president.

We have had election fraud in this country before. November's wildly
inaccurate presidential exit polls should warrant concern of the highest
order by every American citizen.

The report acknowledges that the possibility of fraud in our vote
counting system is the most serious issue any democracy can face. If
there is any chance that vote counts have been electronically
manipulated, it is imperative that the people of the United States know
the truth.

The report concludes, “/We believe that the absence of any
statistically-plausible explanation for the discrepancy between
Edison/Mitofsky’s exit poll data and the official presidential vote
tally is an unanswered question of vital national importance that needs
thorough investigation./”

US Count Votes is seeking financial support for its "National Election
Data Archive" project in order to collect detailed election data and,
prior to November 2006, to develop statistical methods to audit
elections results data and provide statistical evidence of vote
tabulation errors immediately following any US election.

*Contributors and Supporters of the Report include:*

*Josh Mitteldorf*, PhD - Temple University Statistics Department

*Steven F. Freeman*, PhD - Center for Organizational Dynamics,
University of Pennsylvania

*Brian Joiner*, PhD - Prof. of Statistics (ret) University of Wisconsin

*Frank Stenger*, PhD - Professor, School of Computing, University of Utah

*Richard G. Sheehan*, PhD -Professor, Department of Finance, University
of Notre Dame

*Paul F. Velleman*, PhD - Associate Prof., Department of Statistical
Sciences, Cornell University

*Victoria Lovegren*, PhD - Department of Mathematics, Case Western
Reserve University

*Campbell** B. Read*, PhD - Prof. Emeritus, Department of Statistical
Science, Southern Methodist University

*Jonathan Simon*, J.D., National Ballot Integrity Project

*Ron Paul Baiman, *PhD* *– Institute of Government and Public Affairs,
University of Illinois at Chicago

*About US Count Votes*

US Count Votes is a Utah non-profit corporation. It is the sponsor of
the National Election Data Archive project and of research to
scientifically analyze the accuracy of vote counting in the United
States. Its goal is to provide nationwide, impartial statistical
auditing services to help ensure the accuracy of future elections.

For further information: contact Bruce O’Dell, Vice President, US Count
Votes

Email: bruce@uscountvotes.org <mailto:bruce@uscountvotes.org>

612-309-1330

or visit www.electionarchive.org

------------------------------------------------------------------------

[1] <#_ftnref1> "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004"
prepared by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the
National Election Pool (NEP) Jan. 19, 2005

[2] <#_ftnref2> In the November 21 runoff, Ukraine's official vote count
had Prime Minister Yanukovych the winner by 2.7%. Two exit polls showed
him losing by 8% and 2%, respectively. Thus, the discrepancy was between
10.7% and 4.7%. In the US, the discrepancy was between 6.5% and 5.5%.
See http://www.templetonthorp.com/ru/news808 and
http://www.indybay.org/archives/archive_by_id.php?id=2669&category_id=44.

[3] <#_ftnref3> www.acm.org/usacm/weblog/index.php?p=73

[4] <#_ftnref4>
http://uscountvotes.net/voting_machines/Best_Practices_US.pdf

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Received on Thu Mar 31 23:17:08 2005

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