From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_dot_dopp_at_gmail_dot_com>

Date: Sat Jul 22 2006 - 19:31:45 CDT

Date: Sat Jul 22 2006 - 19:31:45 CDT

Determining Vote Count Audit Sample Size to Detect Any

Outcome-Altering Vote Miscount

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Everyone (NEDA and OVC),

However, we have a great solution.

Frank Stenger wrote a simple 5-line maple (or mathematica) function to

calculate the exact sample sizes needed to detect outcome-altering

vote miscounts. He uses the Gamma natural log function to calculate

the sample sizes using the following inputs:

N = # total vote counts

C = #minimum corrupt counts to alter any election ( C = (minimum

candidate margin)/(maximum margin swing per machine))

P = desired probability for detecting at least one vote miscount

maple and mathematica algorithms are time-tested for calculating the

sample sizes to any desired accuracy, in fact, much more accuracy than

we need. His solution is correct, without question.

The program can be refined (round up to the nearest integer sample

size; and permit the input of candidate margin and max margin-swing

per machine) and in other ways.

I am proposing that the Open Voting Consortium and the National

Election Data Archive write a joint paper on determining vote count

audit percentages. There has been much discussion on the OVC list (by

Laird, Ed, and Jerry) on how to generate charts to make this new

method for calculating audit percentages easily understood by the

public.

We may be able to apply the maple program on NEDA's server and on

OVC's server to display the exact vote count audit sample sizes needed

for any election and county. Or we could create numerous charts or

tables and post those charts or tables to use to look up values.

The program's source code would be made publicly available.

Does everyone agree on doing such a joint "vote count audit" project

between the OVC and NEDA?

-- ---- Kathy Dopp http://electionarchive.org National Election Data Archive _______________________________________________ OVC-discuss mailing list OVC-discuss@listman.sonic.net http://lists.sonic.net/mailman/listinfo/ovc-discuss ================================================================== = The content of this message, with the exception of any external = quotations under fair use, are released to the Public Domain ==================================================================Received on Mon Jul 31 23:17:07 2006

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