Re: Fwd: OVC-discuss Digest, Vol 21, Issue 21

From: Edmund R. Kennedy <ekennedyx_at_yahoo_dot_com>
Date: Fri Jul 21 2006 - 09:34:58 CDT

Hello All:

     Could an approximate solution be derived
graphically via one or more nomographs? One axis
could be number of votes, another axis could be the
closeness of the election and other variables could be
presented by means of a 'family' of curves. A good
example could be the 2000 "Highway Capacity Manual's,"
speed density curves or the classic Manning's
Nomograph with turning line used for open channel flow
by civil engineers. That certainly would be a lot
less intimidating to your average registrar of voters
or election rights activist.

Thanks, Ed Kennedy

--- Jerry Lobdill <lobdillj@charter.net> wrote:

> Hi Kathy,
>
> I'm working on your suggested task (below).
>
> Your original equation is correct, and if we have to
> live with
> something other than a closed form solution, so be
> it. We can comfort
> ourselves in that event with the knowledge that even
> if we had a
> linear system of simultaneous equations instead of a
> polynomial
> equation of Cth degree, election officials would
> still not be able to
> understand the math. :-)
>
> Jerry
>
> >Message: 1
> >Date: Thu, 20 Jul 2006 01:12:49 -0600
> >From: "Kathy Dopp" <kathy.dopp@gmail.com>
> >Subject: [OVC-discuss] Our "Election Integrity"
> equation solution is
> > an approximation
> >To: uscv_stats@uscountvotes.org, "Open Voting
> Consortium discussion
> > list" <ovc-discuss@listman.sonic.net>
> >Message-ID:
> >
>
<391f105b0607200012xe9b9fc3v2b3682233710812f@mail.gmail.com>
> >Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1;
> format=flowed
> >
> >NEDA may or may "not" be able to derive a better
> formulaic
> >approximation of the probability formula (We are
> using the same
> >original equation that we derived over a year ago
> to calculate audit
> >percentages that has been extensively peer-reviewed
> but are trying to
> >solve it for one of the variables). Frank and I
> are still working on
> >it, but a one-step exact solution is not looking
> hopeful. The election
> >integrity equation to solve has several factorials
> of the variable to
> >be solved for in it and it is thus difficult (or
> impossible?) to solve
> >directly.
> >
> >The good news is that as precise as desired answer
> to the number of
> >vote counts to audit in order to have a desired
> degree of probability
> >of detecting outcome-altering vote miscount can be
> determined with a
> >computer program or by trial and error using a
> spreadsheet.
> >
> >The new equation that I set up last week is only
> trivially different
> >than our extensively peer-reviewed and agreed to
> original probability
> >equation of over a year ago. I have merely
> introduced a small new
> >calculation to make the audit percentage detect
> outcome-altering vote
> >miscount.
> >
> > The method Frank tried for solving the equation
> depends for its
> >precision, on the size of the number of total vote
> counts being a
> >large number, which is not true in many counties.
> I had given Frank
> >the formula to solve without sufficiently informing
> him of its
> >real-life constraints.
> >
> >The great news is that a computer program to solve
> the "election
> >integrity" vote count audit equation will be a
> simple one - by working
> >backwards until the correct probability is obtained
> - almost like a
> >simple search algoritm that can be quickly narrowed
> down, with an
> >approximation function to specify exactly where to
> begin the search,
> >and a probability to check the accuracy of the
> results.
> >
> >Having a computer program to solve the problem,
> rather than a simple
> >formula may make it more difficult to get it
> adopted as the standard -
> >but it is easily-explainable to anyone who knows
> any college-level
> >probability, and so the scientists of NIST, who set
> such standards,
> >will easily understand it.
> >
> >I have updated NEDA's audit paper with an
> explanation and table in its
> >appendix, and the excell spreadsheet will explain
> it to most people.
> >
>
>http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/paper-audits/Paper_Audits.pdf
> >
> >and
> >
>
>http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/paper-audits/
> and get
> >AuditCalculator.xls
> >
> >If anyone wants to take on the project of creating
> a program to
> >calculate the correct audit percentage for
> detecting outcome-altering
> >vote miscount, or fixing up the spreadsheet that
> now lets people
> >calculate it by trial and error, that would be
> terrific. I'm buried
> >without enough funding to hire any help.
> >
> >--
> >----
> >Kathy Dopp
> >http://electionarchive.org
> >National Election Data Archive
> >Dedicated to Accurately Counting Elections
> >Subscribe to announcements by emailing
> election-subscribe@uscountvotes.org
> >Please donate or volunteer.
> >
> >"Enlighten the people generally, and tyranny and
> oppressions of body
> >and mind will vanish like evil spirits at the dawn
> of day," wrote
> >Thomas Jefferson in 1816
>
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Received on Mon Jul 31 23:17:06 2006

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