Re: [ei] Re: [EILeg] A 3-Step Audit Protocol w/ 99% confidence

From: Ginny Ross <ginnypdx_at_comcast_dot_net>
Date: Thu Jan 25 2007 - 06:36:13 CST

Diana Finch wrote:
> Ginny:
>
> I'm just curious to know whether you or anyone can explain out what this
> means:
>
> " Using the PCT vote counts sorted in descending order, the minimum
> number of PCTs containing at least one half the number of votes obtained
> by dividing the Margin by the maximum assumed vote shift percentage per PCT
> shall be determined. "
>
> I don't find the definition for "Margin" in this language - nor for "maximum
> assumed vote shift percentage per precinct"
>
> Thanks,
>
> Diana
 
Hi Diana,

Thanks for your question and I hope the answer below is helpful. This
is the answer from Howard Stanislevic.

'Sure. Margin should be well defined in election law. However, I propose
this definition for federal elections:

Margin means the vote differential between the two leading candidates.
If a runoff is indicated, the Margin is the differential between the
number of votes required to avoid the runoff and the number of votes for
the leading candidate.

The other one: maximum assumed vote shift percentage per precinct, is
Saltman's maximum level of undetectability by observation or
Stanislevic's within-precinct miscount (WPM). It was also used by the
Brennan Center in their report. I think they called it something similar
to what's in the protocol.

Here's a definition I wrote:

Maximum assumed vote shift percentage per precinct is the largest vote
shift (as a percentage of the total votes cast in the race to be
audited) on a single PCT that could be switched from one candidate to
another without being detectable by observation alone. This value will
be used, along with the Margin, to determine the Smallest Tabulation
Error to Reverse an Electoral Outcome (STEREO). For example, if 20% of
the total votes in a single PCT could be switched between two candidates
without being detectable by observation alone, five corrupt PCTs would
be required to switch the equivalent of all the votes cast on a single PCT.

A lawyer should go over the language in the protocol and bless it. That
way the language can be improved and needed definitions can be included.

HS"
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Received on Tue Jan 1 14:12:48 2008

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