A 3-Step Audit Protocol w/ 99% confidence

From: Ginny Ross <ginnypdx_at_comcast_dot_net>
Date: Tue Jan 23 2007 - 19:05:35 CST

(This is from a post on another list. I do not know how it would work
in a state where we do not use precincts like Oregon. ~GR)

The Protocol:

The following is a variable-percentage, fixed (99%) confidence level
audit applicable to all Federal elections. If there are enough corrupt
precincts to alter the outcome of a contest, this protocol has 99%
certainty of finding at least one. This shall be used in conjunction
with trigger(s) for additional audits or full hand recounts:

A Precinct-Count Tabulator (PCT) is a DRE or Optical Scan voting device
by which votes are counted at a polling place. The following procedure,
which can be promulgated by law or regulation, will detect a corrupt PCT
if there are enough corrupt PCTs to change the outcome of an election
with at least 99% certainty.

1. The minimum number of PCTs to change the outcome of any election as
reported by the voting system shall be calculated as follows: For each
race in any federal election, the Margin in votes reported by the voting
system shall be calculated. All PCTs used in each race shall be sorted
by the total number of votes recorded in said race by each PCT in the
voting system, starting with the PCT with the highest vote count for
said race and ending with the PCT with the lowest vote count for
said race (i.e., in descending order). Using the PCT vote counts sorted
in descending order, the minimum number of PCTs containing at least one
half the number of votes obtained by dividing the Margin by the maximum
assumed vote shift percentage per PCT shall be determined. The resulting
minimum number of PCTs (minCorr) that could change the outcome of the
race shall be used in the following equation, along with the total
number of PCTs used in said race (totPCT), to determine the number of
PCTs to audit for said race.

2. The number of PCTs to be audited in each race (audPCT) shall be equal
to: totPCT x (1 - e^(- 4.6 / minCorr)) rounded down to the next lesser
integer, where totPCT is the total number of PCTs, minCorr is the
minimum number of corrupt PCTs to change the outcome, e is the standard
mathematical constant approximately 2.718, and ^ is the exponentiation
operator.

3. Each county or equivalent jurisdiction shall audit its pro rata share
of the total number of PCTs to be audited for each race (audPCT), as
determined by multiplying the quotient of the number of PCTs in said
race which reside in said jurisdiction divided by the total number of
PCTs used in said race in their entirety and rounding the product up to
the next greater integer.
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Received on Tue Jan 1 14:12:47 2008

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