Election Data Reporting Hides Many Secrets

From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_at_directell_dot_com>
Date: Sun Dec 26 2004 - 22:30:58 CST

I thought this group would be interested to know what secrets are being
uncovered in New Mexico thanks to the efforts of the Green Party and
Warren Stewart who have worked tirelessly with NM state election workers
to gather it.

Data, if aggregated keeps major flaws in the election process secret.

For instance, in New Mexico two major problems hid each other.

"Phantom votes" are defined as votes counted that total more than the
number of ballots cast.

 In New Mexico, "phantom votes" counted for absentee ballots (over 2,000
in the state total) cancelled out "undervotes" in each precinct so that
undervotes were also under-reported. In addition, absentee and early
voting ballots showed very different voting patterns than election day
votes, so that the pattern of absentee and early voting obscured the
pattern of election day voting which revealed:

that in New Mexico, DRE voting machines during election day voting
recorded undervotes with no vote for the presidential race, in "much"
higher numbers (about five times higher) than precincts using optical scan
paper ballots.

This news, especially once vetted by the statisticians on USCV's email
list for statisticians, will be a huge boon to those pushing for paper
ballots for voting machines.

This data has not yet been thoroughly analyzed by USCV statisticians yet
because we haven't turned over the data to them yet in a nice enough form
so that it'll be easy for them to read and analyze. (Hopefully that may
happen tomorrow.)

Both undervote patterns and phantom votes were not discovered in New
Mexico until "vote type" breakout of the data was investigated at the
precinct level.

In order to thoroughly investigate elections so that problems can be
irrefutably be brought to light, the following breakdown of vote counts is
necessary by precinct:

1. early
2. early - provisional
3. election day
4. election day - provisional
5. absentee

Yet New Mexico is the only state so far where I have seen this data become
available, although I think we will be getting such data from OH and
perhaps parts of FL as well, and hopefully every state in America where we
can.

Just thought you folks might want to know what's up and why mathematical
examination of the data is so urgently important. Obtaining the data may
be easier in some states than others, and hopefully soon we will come up
with funding to put Warren to work in other states as well.

Best,

Kathy

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Received on Fri Dec 31 23:17:19 2004

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