Re: Re: The 11 days of Florida

From: Edmund R. Kennedy <ekennedyx_at_yahoo_dot_com>
Date: Wed Dec 01 2004 - 21:22:08 CST

Your rough results seem to me be the equal of a smoke
alarm going off. It says there could be something
going on and folks should check further.

Thanks, Ed Kennedy
<> wrote:
> Keith Copenhagen said:
> >
> >
> > Florida's election supervisors, impressed by the
success of early
> > voting, proposed dramatic reforms Tuesday that
would eliminate Election
> > Day, replace it with an 11-day election season
and do away with
> > precincts.
> >
> >
> >
> Interesing Keith,
> FYI, A few of USCountVotes statisticians (off list
but cc'ing me) have
> been discussing the Miami Herald "recount" of 3
opscan FL counties and
> have noted several things:
> 1. The Miami Herald did not report the method they
used to recount the
> ballots (did they only examine over-voted ballots by
hand & use machines
> to recount the rest or count them all by hand?)
> 2. The Miami Herald did not report which of the
precincts they recounted
> of the 60% precincts in Suwanee County, and that
there isn't a set of
> precincts in Suwanee whose votes add up to that
reported by the Miami
> Herald as the official vote total in Suwanee. It
would be easy to slant
> the count by selecting the wrong precincts, so the
Suwanee county recount
> is meaningless.
> 3. The Miami Herald chose op-scan counties to
recount that would not
> likely (according to what some of these
statisticians thought) yield big
> errors. (I myself would have selected Dixie county
and a couple of others
> instead of any of the 3 the Miami Herald selected.)
> 4. The Miami Herald reported that the results of
its recount did not
> indicate that the election results would be
overturned, yet mathematical
> extrapolation of the % change in votes that Kerry
picked up in those 2
> counties times the total number of votes cast for
president in FL "Would
> have changed the results of the FL election". Of
course anyone realizes
> that this gross calculation is not accurate or
meaningful because you
> can't extrapolate like that.
> Another member of our group noted that the reported
recount of New
> Hampshire by the Boston newspaper also claimed that
the NH recount didn't
> show anything significant but failed to report any
actual numbers at all
> that would allow one to judge that analyses.
> The full mathematical study at the precinct level,
as soon as
> can get the systems in place to
obtain all the election
> results and recount data and normalize it into a
database, will be very
> interesting indeed.
> The newspapers' recount reports are more
enlightening for what they're
> "not" reporting. It will take a project like to
> truly shed light on this election.
> I wonder how the early voting will affect the
accuracy of future FL
> elections?
> --
> Kathy Dopp
> US Count Votes
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Received on Fri Dec 31 23:17:01 2004

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