Re: The 11 days of Florida

From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_at_directell_dot_com>
Date: Wed Dec 01 2004 - 21:08:40 CST

Kathy Dopp said:

Oops. I made a mistatement.

> yet mathematical
> extrapolation of the % change in votes that Kerry picked up in those 2
> counties times the total number of votes cast for president in FL "Would
> have changed the results of the FL election".

The gross mathematical extrapolation was done by using all 3 counties and
extrapolating from 60% of the Suwanee county recounted. This "gross"
extrapolation showed that Kerry would have won FL, but again it was hugely
gross and not meaningful, esp since the Suwanee county numbers reported by
the Herald didn't make sense and Suwanee wasn't fully counted.

Here is a quote from from one of our group if just the two fully counted
counties were used to extrapolate.

If you use only Union and Lafayette the statewide vote pickup works out to
33,000 votes. (24+11)/(3393+1272+2452+848) = .0044, then .0044*7,500,000
32,957. I would call that a significant number. This is a wildly long
extrapolation from two counties, but I for one need to see more to be
convinced that it won't hold true in many counties.

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Received on Fri Dec 31 23:17:01 2004

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