Re: OVC-discuss Digest, Vol 22, Issue 24

From: Jerry Lobdill <lobdillj_at_charter_dot_net>
Date: Tue Aug 22 2006 - 14:46:57 CDT

Talk about a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde!

I have posted the entirety of email interchanges between me and Ms.
Dopp at http://www.myimagehosting.com/pic.php?u=778Ke5d2&i=41842
Please download and compare Kathy's demeanor and language with her
most recent post to this list below.

She writes below:
I see that Jerry has taken the clustering approach to adjusting for
precinct-size variation that I first suggested to him in a quick
sentence in my email response to him re. two possible ways that came
immediately to my mind for ways that precinct-size variation can be
adjusted for.

This statement is not a mistake. It is a deliberate lie, and is
completely in character for Kathy. She never suggested any such thing
to me. Quite the contrary.

I might add that when she first contacted Howard Stanislevic her
first move was to accuse him of plagiarism. Typical Dopp!

Best regards,

Jerry Lobdill

At 02:00 PM 8/22/2006, you wrote:
>From: "Kathy Dopp" <kathy.dopp@gmail.com>
>Precedence: list
>MIME-Version: 1.0
>To: ovc-discuss@listman.sonic.net
>Date: Mon, 21 Aug 2006 14:03:45 -0600
>Reply-To: kathy@electionarchive.org, Open Voting Consortium discussion list
> <ovc-discuss@listman.sonic.net>
>Message-ID: <391f105b0608211303v27fefa7bp2328f2fd23c5af2b@mail.gmail.com>
>Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed
>Subject: Re: [OVC-discuss] Effect of Precinct Size Variation on Audits
>Message: 1
>
>On 8/21/06, ovc-discuss-request@listman.sonic.net
><ovc-discuss-request@listman.sonic.net> wrote:
>>Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2006 20:30:51 -0500
>>From: Jerry Lobdill <lobdillj@charter.net>
>>Subject: Re: [OVC-discuss] Effect of Precinct Size Variation on Audits
>>To:
>
>>
>>Let's first be clear. The only data that Kathy has from Tarrant
>>County TX is that which I have also published
>>at http://www.myimagehosting.com/pic.php?u=778Ke5d2&i=41167. This
>>data is the result of processing and compressing a lot of the
>>original detailed data from a real election. It is very high level
>>summary data. If Kathy wants to use it that's fine,
>
>Nice concise paper on audits by Jerry. It is always very good to
>bring more attention to this subject.
>
>FYI, Although Jerry's data was very helpful for testing our method of
>adjusting audit amounts for precinct-size variations, we are not
>including it in our soon to be released paper. We'll be using some
>Ohio data instead because we obtained more detailed data so we knew
>exactly if we were using total ballots cast versus total votes, etc.
>Thank you for providing Jerry as the Tarrant County data was very
>helpful for developing our method of adjusting for precinct-size
>variation.
>
>>
>>Since she seems to be about to publish something different from what
>>she's been selling up to now that may involve the data I have
>
>Jerry is selling a mischaracterization of "what she's been selling" all along.
>
>The very first time Jerry, in email, mentioned the possible effects of
>precinct-size variation on the ability to subvert audits (by targeting
>vote miscount to the largest precincts), I immediately (within
>seconds) emailed Jerry to inform him that that is easy to adjust the
>calculations of audit size for precinct size variation but is only
>needed for audits of precinct optical scan count audits and not for
>DRE machine count audits. Then I suggested two ways to possibly do it
>that came to mind, but as it turned out I did not use either of those
>first thoughts of mine. Nothing has changed about my position, but,
>as with any research, it evolves and improves over time.
>
>Jerry apparently disagrees (perhaps still?) with my gut analysis
>(above) and that is his right. I also made a temporary minor
>programming error in my precinct-size-variation adjustments that had a
>big effect which I discovered myself and corrected and let everyone
>know about on this list.
>
>>mentioned above, and considering her behavior in the recent past, I
>>have decided to publish my paper on mandatory election audit design
>>now. I have sent it to a large number of researchers working in the
>>field of audit design and election integrity assurance. Some of you
>>may have received it directly from me today. If not, and you'd like
>>to have your own copy of it you may download a pdf file of it at
>>http://www.myimagehosting.com/pic.php?u=778Ke5d2&i=41726.
>
>I see that Jerry's paper uses the same probability formulas that NEDA
>publicly recommended for calculating audits in June, 2005 and that is
>great. The more various works confirm each other's methods, the
>better.
>
>
>>corruption. The metrics permit the segregation of polling places into
>>two clusters, one of high probability of potential irregularity, and
>>one of lower probability.
>
>I see that Jerry has taken the clustering approach to adjusting for
>precinct-size variation that I first suggested to him in a quick
>sentence in my email response to him re. two possible ways that came
>immediately to my mind for ways that precinct-size variation can be
>adjusted for. Although I did not end up taking this approach
>myself, it seems like a fine approach (although I've not studied it in
>depth like Jerry has)
>
>I am glad that Jerry added another alternative to the public domain,
>like the recent paper by O'Dell, Simon, Mitteldorf, and Freeman on why
>HR550 would not succeed in detecting outcome-altering vote miscount.
>
>It is important for election integrity activists not to nitpick about
>details at this point in time.
>
>One reason that NEDA was able to persuade the Carter-Baker Election
>Reform Commission Director, Robert Pastor, to recommend audits (the
>Carter-Baker was the first group after NEDA to recommend election
>audits, and the US GAO was the second, both of whom NEDA had
>communication with on this issue of election audits), is because the
>paper we released was short, sweet and simple and made it all sound
>easy.
>
>Jerry's paper adds something valuable to the discussion and is nice
>and brief. I have no problem with Jerry's method, although I've not
>studied it in depth.
>
>Howard Stanislevic of VoteTrustUSA also publicly released a method
>that (although partially trial and error like my July 16, 17 paper)
>that is virtually identical to the method that Frank and I have been
>working on implementing since July (but I initially made a tiny
>programming error that had huge effect). We will be publicly
>releasing it soon, and the NEW thing about it will be a direct
>solution to the problem of calculating vote count audit sample sizes.
>
>
>Unfortunately the soon-to-be-released paper by Frank and I is not so
>short and sweet, although it suggests a slightly easier (IMO) method
>of adjusting for precinct-size variation, plus a direct method to
>calculate the audit sample size.
>
>
>Thank you for your work on this Jerry.
>
>
>
>
>>
>>Clustering the polling places allows a two tiered audit. The first
>>tier is small sample of polling places from the small high suspicion
>>cluster. The second tier is a larger sample from the larger cluster
>>with lower suspicion. There is a 95% probability of detecting
>>irregularity for each cluster. If the high suspicion cluster yields
>>evidence of corruption the audit need go no further, and a complete
>>hand recount would be ordered. In any case, the audit requires
>>perhaps less than 5 polling place recounts or as many as 32 depending
>>on whether and when an irregularity is discovered. The total number
>>of polling places was 211, serving 634 precincts.
>>
>> Jerry Lobdill

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Received on Thu Aug 31 23:17:08 2006

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