Re: Vote recount begins in Mexico

From: Kathy Dopp <kathy_dot_dopp_at_gmail_dot_com>
Date: Thu Aug 10 2006 - 16:51:24 CDT

On 8/10/06, ovc-discuss-request@listman.sonic.net
<ovc-discuss-request@listman.sonic.net> wrote:
> Date: Thu, 10 Aug 2006 14:49:53 -0500
> From: Jerry Lobdill <lobdillj@charter.net>
> Subject: [OVC-discuss] Vote recount begins in Mexico
> To: Open Voting Consortium List <ovc-discuss@listman.sonic.net>
> Message-ID: <6.2.3.4.2.20060810144933.04d106e8@pop.charter.net>
> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
>
> The real questions are:
>
> 1. If the 11839 polling booths are really
> selected at random, and if there is no actual
> correlation between fraudulent polling place vote
> count and number of votes cast at the polling
> place, what is the probability that a recount of
> these polling places will uncover at least one instance of fraud?
>
> 2. What is the actual probability that the
> likelihood of tampering doesn't depend on the
> size of the vote count at a polling place?
>
> 3. How were the 11839 polling places undergoing recount selected?
>

Thanks for the questions Jerry. I tried answering #1 plus calculating
exactly how large the Mexican audit should be to detect fraud
sufficient to swing it in a spreadsheet and found that an excel
spreadsheet does not handle calculating probabilities for such large
numbers as N=130,000, so I called Frank and he is going to use his
math programs to calculate answers to what the 9% audit probability is
for values of corruption which could swing an election under 1% plus
use our new program to calculate what the vote count audit sizes
should really be for the current Mexican election.

Re. your question #2, it is not be possible for me to answer without a
list of the number of ballots cast at the largest (say perhaps 5 or
10%) of the Mexican polling locations, plus the number of total
ballots cast in all of Mexico. I would imagine, judging from our work
on your Tarrant County example, Jerry, that the effect would be small,
but I don't know without testing the actual data. We have only tested
the one example you gave me Jerry. It would be nice to have other
examples of jurisdictions that have different total number of vote
counts with wide precinct-size variation.

Is Tarrant County in Texas?

It was suggested by a friend that we put out a press release evaluatng
the adequacy of the sample size of the Mexican vote count audit and
what the audit sample size actually should be in this particular
election. Perhaps that would get some much needed press attention
focused on the release of our upcoming paper and vote count audit
procedures, as well as give some useful information to those in Mexico
who are working on this issue. Although the Mexicans may have already
done the probability calcs themself for a 9% audit sample.

Kathy
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Received on Thu Aug 31 23:17:06 2006

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