Re: NEDA is going down a primrose path...

From: Arthur Keller <voting_at_kellers_dot_org>
Date: Thu Aug 03 2006 - 03:16:20 CDT

I'd prefer if we can resolve this difference and not have two
competing answers that result in confusion and, worse, others
ignoring the work.

Is there something we can do to achieve resolution?


Best regards,

At 3:39 PM -0500 8/2/06, Jerry Lobdill wrote:
>Since Ms. Dopp posted the message below I worked with her briefly in
>support of the effort she had going (alluded to below) to solve the
>probability equation in closed form. The effort to find a closed
>form solution failed, but I wrote a new spreadsheet that expresses
>the probability in terms of gamma functions. This formulation
>eliminates the need to use integers for sample sizes when goal
>seeking to find the sample size that provides a 0.95 probability of
>finding at least one corrupt precinct in the sample.
>Unfortunately, I was unable to work successfully with her to produce
>a product based on this work because we could not resolve our
>differences on two other issues. The first issue was whether her
>solution assumes that all precincts in the county have equal numbers
>of votes. The second issue was the method of deciding what
>precincts should be included or excluded from the population when
>setting up the equation.
>I am now working on my own to produce a methodology for conducting
>mandatory audits of elections. I will post my writeups on this
>problem here and hope that there will be some members who will be
>able to take the time to read and discuss this work.
>Meanwhile if any of you would like me to send you a copy of my work
>directly, please send me a request at
>Jerry Lobdill
>Kathy Dopp wrote on 17 July, 2006:

Arthur M. Keller, Ph.D., 3881 Corina Way, Palo Alto, CA  94303-4507
tel +1(650)424-0202, fax +1(650)424-0424
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Received on Thu Aug 31 23:17:03 2006

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